The Q1 2010 Retail Futures report, which is a unique forecasting tool providing dynamic forecasts and analysis of market demand and price pressures, is now available from Research and Markets.
Scope:
Brief review of economic trends and how they impact retail, explaining how we believe key economic metrics will evolve over the next two years.
Forecasts of how overall retail and retail sectors will fare over the next nine quarters, examining volume, inflation and overall growth rates.
Category level forecasts are provided to fully inform growth strategies.
Forecast for online retailing, analysing total online spend, split down into food and non-food.
Highlights:
Conditions look set to remain extremely challenging for retail throughout 2010. We are forecasting growth of just 1.3% this year, the second lowest growth rate, after 2009, since our records began in 1966. Indeed, Verdict is predicting low growth in retail over the next few years, as the impact of the recession continues to be felt by consumers.
Non-food is not expected to return to growth until the final quarter of 2010, and then it will be only a marginal 0.8%. While clothing & footwear and health & beauty will experience growth this will be heavily outweighed by the dire performances of more discretionary sectors, particularly those related to the housing market.
Food inflation continues to ease in Q1 2010, at 1.7%, compared to 8.9% in the same period a year ago. Inflationary pressures are subsiding due to falling commodity prices, less seasonal price fluctuations and price competition within the sector. In fact, we are forecasting food inflation of 1.9% for the year, down from 4.4% in 2009.
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