Rough diamond production is expected to return to 2008 levels of 165 million carats no earlier than 2015 and, thereafter, to remain at around that level of carats per year as a result of a limited supply of new projects and depletion of existing mines. This is according to an analysis by Russian diamond giant Alrosa. It is expected that by 2011, the total supply will partially recover to 157 million carats per year due mostly to recovery of production at existing mines.
Based on the outlook of each of the main diamond jewelry markets, including the United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Japan and the Middle East, the demand is expected to grow by 33% over the next 8 years, finds the analysis.
As a result of this emerging fundamental imbalance between supply and demand, the rough diamond prices in 2018 may be as much as 31% higher in real terms as compared to pre-crisis 2008 levels (or 55% higher if US$ inflation is taken into account).
The anticipated gap between the expected supply of and demand for rough diamonds
can be closed by a 31% growth in rough diamond prices by 2018 relative to 2008 prices (or a 55% growth if the US$ inflation of 2.0–2.5% per year is taken into account) finds the analysis.
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- Dollar Value of Debswana’s Diamond Sales Expected to Return to 2007-08 Level by 2012-13
- Namdeb Diamond Sales in 2009 Down 40% ffrom 2008
- Endiama Production Expected to be Between 7 and 9 Million Carats in 2009
- China, India demand to keep diamond prices firm – CRISIL
