It might surprise a few people to see Getafe as the bookies favourites to win this match but this is the time in the season when strange results are plentiful in La Liga and it would be no real shock to see Getafe emerge victorious against their rivals from the Madrid region here.
Atleti have made it very clear that their priority now is the Europa League Final and you can’t really blame them. They’ve nothing to play for in La Liga besides a scramble for 2nd place with Real Madrid, who seem equally disinterested in that battle with a European final of their own to prepare for.
Los Blancos still have a few weeks before that but Atleti play Marseille in Lyon just four days after this match. As a result Diego Simeone is likely to rest a host of key men and judging by what happened last weekend, they become very vulnerable when they do that.
With an experimental side they lost 2-0 at home to a pretty average Espanyol side. That was their first league defeat at the Wanda Metropolitano and it’s just 3 wins in 9 matches overall now for Atleti. They’ve still been getting results in the games that matter but this match doesn’t really fall into that category.
Getafe had no fewer than six men suspended last weekend but still won on the road and they are perhaps the most physical side in the division so that should only lead Atleti into making more changes in a game where they can’t afford injuries. Getafe also have plenty to play for as they battle it out with Sevilla for a Europa League slot so it’s very clear they will be the more motivated side here.
Even aside from that, there’s reason to think Getafe could have the edge. They’ve been in fine form with 13 points from their last 5 league games. They have the 3rd best defensive record in La Liga with just 0.89 goals per game conceded, while they’ve let in only 0.67 at home.
It’s unlikely to be a goal-fest though with two of the division’s best three defences on show and backing Getafe & Under 2.5 Goals also looks good.