Juventus were in a very risky position at one point last weekend, but their resilience brought them a 3-2 win at rivals Inter, which saw them finish the weekend four points clear at the top of the Serie A table. They can afford to lose one of their remaining three fixtures and still win the league, despite losing to their title rivals in their previous home game. We doubt Juve will suffer that loss when they host Bologna this weekend, with the visitors coming here in poor form, with nothing to play for.

Bologna are without a win in eight away, having lost eight of their nine visits to top half sides so far. With their toughest away game yet to come, we can’t see anything but a loss for the Rossoblu this weekend. They’re facing a Juve side who lead the way in the division for points picked up at home, while they’ve won seven of their last eight at their own ground in the league. Having conceded just 0.35 goals per game at the Allianz Stadium in Serie A this term, Saturday night’s game should be straightforward for the Old Lady.

The visitors’ attack shouldn’t be a major issue for the champions, given that 50% of the goals conceded by Juventus (11 out of 22) have come from set-pieces – the highest percentage in this Serie A campaign. That’s particularly relevant, as only Chievo (seven) and Crotone (eight) have netted fewer goals than Bologna (nine) from set pieces. Having hit 0.82 goals per game across their away matches, we’re backing a Bologna blank against a Juve side who have won to nil in 65% of their home games.

On top of that, Juve have only scored more than three goals in three home matches in Serie A this term, and they’re unlikely to add to that this weekend. With the Coppa Italia final in midweek, getting an advantage and holding on to it is all that matters for the leaders. All they’re concerned with is the points at this stage, so don’t expect fireworks in this one. We’re thinking that a home win with fewer than four goals scored in total is the value here, with 76% of the champions’ home games seeing under 3.5.

Gonzalo Higuaín – who ended a five-game drought scoring against Inter last Saturday – has bagged a brace in his only previous game at the Allianz Stadium against Bologna in Serie A. The striker should finish the season strongly after his impact against Inter, so we’re backing him to score any time in Saturday night’s encounter.


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